The Lambs You Lose Are the Ones You Never See
Fox predation is one of the most underestimated costs in sheep enterprises, because the evidence usually disappears. A fox takes a newborn lamb overnight and by morning there is little left to find. Producers often blame a “poor marking percentage” on weather or ewe condition when a meaningful share of the gap is foxes working the lambing paddock under cover of dark.
The numbers are stark. The European red fox costs an estimated $198 million in agricultural damage across Australia each year, the bulk of it lamb predation. NSW DPI estimates foxes can kill up to 30 percent of lambs in badly affected flocks, and research puts average predation at around 7 percent, more typically 2 to 5 percent, of the lamb drop. On 500 ewes, even a 2 to 4 percent loss is 10 to 20 lambs, every year, quietly gone.
The good news is that fox predation is one of the most controllable losses on a sheep property, if you get the timing right.
The Single Most Important Rule: Before, Not During
Fox control before lambing works. Fox control during lambing is damage limitation. By the time you find your first killed lamb, the foxes are already established, fed, and harder to shift.
The goal is to drive fox numbers down in the weeks before lambs hit the ground, so the vulnerable window opens with as few foxes as possible in the area. Two biological facts make pre-lambing timing especially effective:
- Food is scarcer before spring. Through late autumn and winter, natural food declines, so foxes are hungrier, range further, and are far more likely to take a bait.
- Juvenile foxes are dispersing. Young foxes leaving their natal dens have never encountered baits and are much more likely to take them than wary established adults. Removing them before they settle into your lambing country prevents next season’s problem too.
Timing It to Your Lambing Window
NSW producers lamb across different seasons, so the calendar shifts, but the principle holds: control foxes in the lead-up to your lambing date.
| Your lambing window | When to run fox control | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Spring lambing (Aug to Oct) | Autumn and early winter baiting, with shooting closer to lambing | Catches dispersing juveniles and hungry adults; aligns with LLS autumn group programmes |
| Autumn lambing (Apr to May) | Late summer and early autumn | Time control to the weeks before lambs are on the ground |
| Any window | Intensify in the 4 to 6 weeks before lambing | The closer to lambing, the more shooting matters for the lambing paddocks themselves |
Many Local Land Services regions run coordinated autumn fox and wild dog baiting programmes from April through June and subsidise the baits. Joining one is usually the cheapest and most effective way to bait, and it aligns your effort with your neighbours’. See our guide on autumn wild dog and fox baiting for how those programmes work.
Baiting and Shooting: Use Both
The most effective pre-lambing fox control combines two methods.
Coordinated baiting is the broadscale workhorse. 1080 baiting across adjoining properties reduces fox numbers across the whole area cost-effectively, and timed in autumn it catches dispersing juveniles before they establish. Because foxes reinvade quickly, baiting as a coordinated group rather than alone is what makes it stick.
Ground shooting with thermal optics complements baiting. It removes bait-shy foxes, gives you targeted control right around the lambing paddocks in the final weeks, and lets you respond fast if you see fox activity once lambs are down. Foxes are nocturnal, so thermal and night vision equipment is decisive: it finds animals that are invisible to the spotlight and the naked eye.
A word of caution: 1080 is lethal to dogs with no reliable antidote. Before any baiting, read our guide on protecting working dogs during 1080 baiting and plan your dog management around the programme.
Stack the Odds with Good Management
Control does the heavy lifting, but management reduces what is left:
- Lamb in smaller, well-fenced paddocks closer to the house and away from gullies, scrub, and heavy cover that foxes use.
- Synchronise lambing so the vulnerable window is short and easier to protect.
- Keep ewes in good condition so lambs are born vigorous and quick to their feet.
- Remove dead stock promptly, because carcasses draw foxes straight into your lambing country.
None of these replace fox control, but together with timed baiting and shooting they protect more lambs than either approach on its own.
How We Help
We assess your property and your lambing calendar, then design a fox control programme timed to protect your lamb drop: coordinated baiting in the lead-up, thermal ground shooting close to lambing, and monitoring so you can see the difference in your marking percentage. Where it makes sense, we coordinate with your neighbours and your LLS programme to treat the whole area at once. See our fox control and baiting programmes pages, or get in touch well before your lambing window so there is time to act. In the Hunter, our fox control for Merriwa and the Upper Hunter page covers the local sheep-country timing.
Sources consulted: ABARES cost of established pest animals; NSW DPI fox predation estimates; PestSmart fox control Standard Operating Procedures; Agriculture Victoria lamb survival and fox control timing; Local Land Services autumn baiting programmes.